Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.555002 2.724120 2.904540 3.112343 3.346351 3.603241 3.908695
2025-03-30 2.285570 2.510226 2.762547 3.070269 3.440165 3.876910 4.441789
2025-04-06 2.107681 2.359595 2.652255 3.023380 3.490693 4.073307 4.878714
2025-04-13 1.956697 2.220391 2.534233 2.943789 3.477943 4.172934 5.187707
2025-04-20 1.885577 2.168259 2.512861 2.975809 3.602091 4.455225 5.779812
2025-04-27 1.837211 2.138449 2.513901 3.032325 3.758986 4.795510 6.512161
2025-05-04 1.794111 2.110935 2.513740 3.084073 3.910551 5.143291 7.323479
2025-05-11 1.727012 2.047793 2.461538 3.058281 3.944933 5.313887 7.866831
2025-05-18 1.668711 1.992573 2.415794 3.036688 3.981131 5.488526 8.452601
2025-05-25 1.613500 1.938422 2.367917 3.007586 4.001347 5.636659 9.019243
2025-06-01 1.562807 1.887813 2.321878 2.977296 4.015600 5.774246 9.596873
2025-06-08 1.527046 1.855644 2.299498 2.979976 4.081905 6.011269 10.461043
2025-06-15 1.502999 1.839098 2.299114 3.017162 4.211010 6.388643 11.811846
2025-06-22 1.456718 1.789929 2.249660 2.975223 4.201557 6.497629 12.516787
2025-06-29 1.412886 1.742516 2.200563 2.930657 4.183187 6.585555 13.200416
2025-07-06 1.362966 1.684895 2.134270 2.855079 4.103610 6.536316 13.459648
2025-07-13 1.345726 1.672772 2.134183 2.885492 4.217232 6.914156 15.265384
2025-07-20 1.335737 1.670402 2.148139 2.939143 4.378406 7.427385 17.918988
2025-07-27 1.324979 1.666373 2.159159 2.988236 4.535729 7.965999 21.206219
2025-08-03 1.296442 1.635526 2.127954 2.963771 4.546246 8.146445 23.056429
2025-08-10 1.270365 1.607487 2.099997 2.943283 4.562825 8.346212 25.245252
2025-08-17 1.243886 1.578102 2.068897 2.915663 4.562404 8.501596 27.397897
2025-08-24 1.218394 1.549493 2.038038 2.886904 4.557246 8.644154 29.704064